The chance for this to drop for each individual attempt will always be, for as long as Blizzard does not change the drop rate, 1%. This is the probability that it will drop in a number of attempts, not for any individual attempt. Please remember that just because you are on your 365th attempt does not mean the chance that you will see the mount drop on that attempt is 97.4%. Your best bet would be to either wait for the level cap to be raised so that you can super-humanly solo this instance, or offer a significant amount of gold to the person who wins the roll on this mount. In a regular 5-man group, it would require 347 attempts just for the odds to be on your side (over 50%), and 1833 attempts to have an greater or equal chance compared to if you were to solo the instance for an entire year (approximately 97.4%). your chance of actually attaining this item under these conditions within a year would be 51.8%. Due to this, you must also factor in the number of people in your party (represented by a):
However, in a normal group of 5 participants, assuming all roll on the mount, you actually have a 20% chance of obtaining this item every time you see it drop. So your probability of seeing this item drop in 365 attempts is roughly 97.4%, which is very good.
To calculate your probability of seeing this item (which has a 1% chance of dropping according to Wowhead) drop over 365 attempts (every day for a regular year), turn 1% into a decimal. All it takes is a bit of skill and dedication.Ĭomment by XhougnaamnTo calculate the probability (p) of an item with x chance of dropping to drop over n number of attempts, plug your numbers into this equation: So with that in mind, if you're looking for a proto-drake but don't mind what colour it is - go for the red. It would be even less likely to see anyone but a serious raider get it. As such, it would be very unlikely that anyone but a serious raider will get it.Ħ) Black proto-drake: along the same stream of thought as the plagued, this one involves getting the hardest T7 raid achievement - the Immortal. The saving grace is that there's no competition if it does drop from your egg.ĥ) Plagued proto-drake: this is one of the more difficult drakes to get, as it involves a fairly difficult achievement - the Twilight Zone. You can also eliminate group competition with enough gold to grease the wheels.Ĥ) Green proto-drake: as previously mentioned, you only get 52 chances in a year to earn it. If you can tag it and stay in dps range of it, you get your mount.ģ) Blue proto-drake: whilst you have the competition of other group members if it drops, you have 7 times as many chances in a year to get this as you do the green proto-drake. Then it all comes down to how good you are at camping and tagging. If you put in the time and effort, you should have no problems getting the drake.Ģ) Time-lost proto-drake: generally, the mob will spawn once every 2 to 3 days. IMO, the easiest mounts to get are:ġ) Red proto-drake: some of the achievements may seem tricky, but all are doable with a skilled, decently geared group and the right strategy. Comment by jaxsonbatemanAs far as I'm aware, the dropped proto-drakes (blue and green) both have a 1% chance per loot to drop.
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